Four My Stable Horses On Sunday Card
Only One Qualifies As A WIN Bet, Two Others May Place
FOUR HORSES from
My Stable feature on the Sunday (July 8) card.
Race 2: #3 Mountain Of Joy
Race 7: #9 Capote
Race 8: #3 Never Say Goodbye & #9 Auburn Beauty
Here is the analysis:
Mountain Of Joy (2-3)
This is what I had said when Mountain Of Joy raced last, on June 3: "On My Stable we have marked this horse for a mile after his last winning effort, but generally we reconsider if the horse changes yard after getting onto the My Stable list. However, we have decided to let it stay as the new trainer is also a competent professional. Maybe he is taking his time with this horse as is indicated by the continuance of steel shoes and the services of a apprentice."
Now with Aluminum shoes & a better jockey in saddle, Mountain Of Joy commands as a bet though he is going a furlong more than the metric mile. The track work since last run is also very encouraging, and the odds (night odds 3/1) hold good value for money.
Action: Mountain Of Joy for WIN
Actually, I should be delighted that Capote, whom I supported (in retrospect, quite foolishly) over seven furlongs, is now running over his pet trip of six, and in the night odds, he is listed at a generous 5/1.
But no, I am not delighted at all.
The reason is Trevor Patel, the jockey. This young lad who excelled at this track until June 24 (winning 14 races from 33 mounts, placing in 23 of them) has not won a race from his last eight rides after that. This sudden loss of form is definitley a cause for worry, especially for us, because My Stable strongly believes in a jockey's current riding form. Is Trevor just taking it easy? Or has he lost form? Or is he perhaps the victim of a universally accepted statistical principle called "regression to the mean"?
Whatever it may be, it's safer to downgrade Capote to a PLACE bet.
Action: Capote for PLACE
Never Say Goodbye (8-3) & Auburn Beauty (8-9)
We have reserved Never Say Goodbye for a 5y&over set, so we ignore her here.
As regards Auburn Beauty, I had got her into My Stable because I thought she would be able to defy the penalty imposed by the official handicapper. But the same problem that I discussed in the earlier race about the jockey form also applies here.
P S Chouhan who returned from a four-day suspension went 0 for 6 on yesterday's card, and if he continues with that kind of form, Auburn Beauty may have to be content with PLACE.
Action: Auburn Beauty for PLACE
Mountain Of Joy (2-3) for WIN
Capote (7-9) for PLACE
Auburn Beauty (8-9) for PLACE